Wednesday, November 25, 2009

Random Worthless Forecasts and Future Headlines

Forecasts are nearly always wrong, so if you have to make one publicly, make sure it is overly general, and give yourself plenty of time for it to happen.

Today I decided to do some forecasting around the number "2". They are not time-specific but I think they can happen at "roughly" the same time.

They are gold at $2k, S&P500 at 2k, and USD/EUR at 2. EUR up by the least amount due to competitive devaluations. S&P up by the most as the gold grab turns to "any asset" grab; very strong performance by the energy, hard asset and real estate components of the index.

While we're at "2", inflation expectations hit 20%, unemployment hits 20% and Obama approval ratings hit 20%.

There was a lot of noise recently about Obama's deep bow to the official representatives of our creditors. I can assure you that this is nothing: he will be bringing a shoe-shine kit the next time around.

Here's my sampling of future headlines (date range 2015-2050):

"New generation Chinese Navy submarine boat surfaced today by downtown Chicago's Lake Michigan yacht harbor. It was boarded by USDA inspectors concerned whether there was any raw meat or plant seeds on board, and released after a call from Washington"

"CNOOC today signed a 99-year lease to manage responsibly all National Parks west of the Mississippi. Along with drilling, logging and mining, CNOOC has promised to plant various native trees and grasses on the grounds of the parks. They will remain open to American citizens for at least five years, according to Mr. Weng Chei Pen, CEO for the Americas"

"CNOOC spokesperson Jennifer Johnson assured the press that the company will increase its hiring of local Hamptons residents to work on the company's area rigs"

"The USDA has confirmed that American farmers will be able to meet the Chinese wheat and soybean tax this year ahead of schedule, and expressed concern about the 12% tax increase scheduled for next year, as fresh water exports to China have lowered crop yields across the Midwest"

"The US Army has lowered its mandatory draft age to 15 and expanded it to girls, as the US participation in the Coalition of the Willing escalates, after a request from China for additional troops to suppress a natives' uprising in Iran."

"US taxpayers frustrated by Chinese language tax forms, gold payment requirements"

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